Climate Change

 

In 2008, The Partnership for the Delaware Estuary (PDE) was selected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to carry out one of six pilot programs in the nation for developing a strategy to adapt to climate change as part of the Climate Ready Estuaries program. This pilot study will furnish a preliminary Climate Adaptation Report showing what can and should be done to monitor and maintain some key resources in the Delaware Estuary in the face of climate change.

This pilot effort will initially focus on up to three case-study resources to test whether and how climate-adaptation planning yields helpful information for regional resource managers.

     

Visitors who want to learn more about the effects of climate change in the Delaware Estuary should download the Climate Change and the Delaware Estuary (PDF file) report.

 As sea levels rise, legislators may be forced to make difficult choices. For example, do they instruct people to retreat from the shoreline, or do they build up defenses, such as this sea wall built in 2006 on Pea Patch Island in the Delaware River?

The PDE will engage additional scientific partners to examine how climate change may affect: drinking water, tidal wetlands, and shellfish. These were selected as case studies for two reasons: 1.) they are important for the vitality of both people and the environment; and 2.) they may be particularly threatened by factors such as increased salinity and sea level rise.

This pilot study will begin with a vulnerability assessment that will weigh the risks and consequences of degradation or loss of the studied resources. The approximate value of retaining those resources through various "adaptation options" will also be weighed using an approach known as "natural capital valuation." The project will also examine monitoring and management needs that may be needed to track and forecast the actual effects of climate change. If successful, this adaptation planning effort will be expanded in the future from these case-study resources to all key ecosystem goods and services in the Delaware Estuary watershed.

The goals of this effort are to make the most of our natural resources that are used, and to ensure that sufficient natural resources are available in the future to sustain people. The lessons that are learned will be used to provide information and leadership to managers and coastal communities that may struggle with the effects of climate change.

Prior to its selection as a pilot program, the PDE had elevated its planning for climate change as a top priority in its:

Top environmental concerns include the effects of:

  • sea level rise
  • salinity rise
  • altered rainfall and snowfall
  • altered amounts of freshwater flowing through waterways
  • shifting species ranges
  • stressed plant and animal communities
  • continued spread of nuisance and invasive species
  • changing land use and population growth

Warmer temperatures and higher salinities are both factors that are likely to impair key species. When dominant species are lost or degraded, we can expect to see dramatic shifts in ecosystem health, even with relatively small shifts in climate. Scientists and ecologists refer to these as "ecological thresholds" or "tipping points."

So, what can we do? Mitigation is one important need. Mitigation refers to actions we can take to slow climate change, such as reducing our carbon dioxide emissions, planting trees, and so on. But even the best mitigation steps will not offset the momentum of climate change that is well underway.

We will need to adapt to the changes facing us. Adaptation refers to actions we can take to adjust to climate change. Instead of just planting trees, for example, adaptation plans would consider which species are likely to flourish after ecological changes take place. This information would be applied while making tough management decisions. For example, which species and areas can we afford to maintain and enhance to boost resilience, and which should be allowed to change?

By using an adaptation approach, scientists can clarify which man-made and natural resources are most imperiled. They can identify options for preserving those resources and predict which choices will lead to the best outcomes.

Adaptation plans may force hard choices, such as whether to accept "strategic retreat" from the shoreline or stick with the old approach: investing in costly, environmentally damaging bulkheads and seawalls. Salinity rise and the availability of drinkable water will depend on choices such as these, and thousands of decisions will have to be made.

A Climate Adaptation Workgroup has also been established to oversee technical elements of this project. To learn more about the Climate Ready Estuaries pilot projects, please contact Priscilla Cole at (800) 445-4935, extension 115, or PCole@DelawareEstuary.org.